Tuesday, May 29, 2007

The Real Estate Market is Much Softer Than Previously Thought

From the consulting firm John Burns Real Estate Consulting:

The housing market has softened much more than is being reported. We have been advising our retainer clients for more than one year about misleading national sales information, both with the Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales data. We are now going public with our concerns because we are concerned that policy makers are relying on national data to conclude that the housing market correction has not been severe.

The statement gives the following reasons for the comment above:

1. Sales are down 22% in the last 12 months
2. MBA Application Index is down 18%
3. Builder order data is down 27%+
4. Brokerage business in down 18%
5. NAR data maybe understated
6. US Census data on new home sales does not net out cancellations


In summary, we believe that the Fed should know that the housing market correction has been quite steep and is also not showing signs of bottoming out . . .

Also there is a table at the end that is worth a look.

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