Saturday, April 4, 2009

Roubini on the Economy

Nouriel Roubini is still calling for a recession lasting the rest of this year with a weak recovery starting in 2010. He covers this and a number of other issues in his 14 minute interview with CNBC. Below are some comments from his site:

consistent with my views for the last several months - the rate of economic contraction will slow from the -6% of Q1 to a figure closer to -2% and next year the economic recovery will be so weak – growth below 1% and unemployment rate peaking at 10% - that it will still feel like a recession even if we may be technically out of it. So, compared to the bullish consensus that sees positive growth at 2% by Q3-Q4 of this year and return to potential growth by 2010 my views are still consistently more bearish than the consensus. Still, compared to the sharp contraction in US and global growth in Q1 of this year (about -6%) the rate of economic contraction will slow down towards -2% for the US and other advanced economies by year end. That is only a mild improvement and still a severe U-shaped recession with a very weak and tentative recovery by 2010.

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