Sunday, June 3, 2012

Consumer Loans are Down Except for Student Loans

In spite a reduction in consumer borrowing student loans continue to increase.  I am sure it is some type of "can't find a job then go to school" coupled with the cost of college is increasing. By the way, serious delinquency, that is 90+ dpd (days past due) is now 8.69%.  Fairly serious delinquency problems.  What happens when the students graduate and they cannot find a job?  What happens when they pay too much for college and they cannot afford the debt?  When happens when they graduate in a major they do not like?  A lot to think about before one takes on that much debt.  This article is from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York - "right from the horses mouth".

Article is in italics, the part in bold is my emphasis.

In its latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York today announced that student loan debt reported on consumer credit reports reached $904 billion in the first quarter of 2012, a $30 billion increase from the previous quarter.  In addition, consumer deleveraging continued to advance as overall indebtedness declined to $11.44 trillion, about $100 billion (0.9 percent) less than in the fourth quarter of 2011.  Since the peak in household debt in the third quarter of 2008, student loan debt has increased by $293 billion, while other forms of debt fell a combined $1.53 trillion. 

The New York Fed also released historical student loans figures, by quarter, dating back to the first quarter of 20031 as part of this quarter’s report.  These data show that student loan debt has substantially increased since 2003, growing $663 billion.  Outstanding student loan debt surpassedcredit card debt as the second highest form of consumer debt in the second quarter of 2010. 

“Student loan debt continues to grow even as consumers reduce mortgage debt and credit card balances,” said Donghoon Lee, senior economist at the New York Fed.  “It remains the only form of consumer debt to substantially increase since the peak of household debt in late 2008.” 

Additionally, 90+ day delinquency rates for student loans steadily increased from 6.13 percent in the first quarter of 2003 to its current level of 8.69 percent.  They remain higher than that of mortgages, auto loans and home equity lines of credit (HELOC).2  90+ day student loan delinquencies were at their peak during the third quarter of 2010 at 9.17 percent and are the only form of those delinquencies to increase this quarter (by 0.24 percent). 
The New York Fed’s latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit also includes data on mortgages, credit cards, auto loans and delinquencies.   

Other highlights from the report include:
  • Mortgage balances shown on consumer credit reports fell again ($81 billion or 1.0 percent) during the quarter. 
  • Mortgage originations, which we measure as appearances of new mortgages on consumer credit reports, rose to $412 billion and are 17.4 percent below their first quarter 2011 level. 
  • Credit card balances, at $679 billion, were 21.6 percent below their fourth quarter 2008 peak of $866 billion. 
  • The number of credit inquiries within six months–an indicator of consumer credit demand–declined slightly, 0.5 percent, and is now 15.5 percent above its first quarter 2010 trough. 
  • Auto loan originations rose 2.1 percent in the quarter, to $72 billion, and are 43.6 percent above their trough level in quarter one of 2009. 
  • About $1.06 trillion of consumer debt is currently delinquent, with $796 billion seriously delinquent (at least 90 days late or “severely derogatory”). 

Click on the graphs to enlarge.

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