The Unemployment Could Go Down in the Near Future and This May not be a Good Thing
One of the more misunderstood and misrepresented metrics used today is the unemployment rate. People "yak" about it all the time, but do not understand how it is calculated and how it should be interpreted in terms of the economy. If the rate goes down is this a numerator or denominator effect? You have to look at the raw numbers. Is the unemployment rate a leading or lagging indicator? Actually it is both depending where you are in the economic cycle. At any rate, the following from CNNMoney.com is interesting. The author understands the numerator and denominator effect.