Below is an article from Steve Hassett at Seeking Alpha. It is a short description of Steve's view of the stock market and the fact that currently "nothing is new it, it is the same old stuff". Steve has a relatively simple model of the stock market the Risk Premium Factor and he has fairly good luck predicting future price of the S&P 500.
By the way, for those of you who do not peruse Seeking Alpha from time to time you are missing an excellent resource on investing, finance, and economics. Is everything you see on the site good - no, of course not. But there is a lot of really good analysis on this site.